![]() ![]() ![]() So I thought it would hold, though sometimes lemmings jump off a cliff for no reason, that is how I feel about the liquidation of institutional portfolios and panicking individual investors. I think we are much better off here than where we were in June. Hindsight is 20-20, but I just couldn't see the June low NOT holding. My big error was to come into this week without hedging. This is part of the Cash Management Discipline we advocate at Dual Mind Research. Though if you see the market soar as it did on Wednesday you should trim shares. Don’t be the ones to sell in a panic now. Really the panic selling is more about a reaction to the natural downward pressure that happens every year at this time. So this isn’t only about the fear that Powell’s “forever war” on inflation will drive the US economy into a ditch. In fact, as I will show later in the analysis, AAPL is the key to this market. That could explain a lot of the selling in stalwarts like Apple ( AAPL ). I wouldn’t be surprised if many professionals just totally liquidated their positions and went to 3-month T-bills. The problem here is that all the volatility downward probably jumbled up a lot of portfolios. This is because this was the end of the 3rd quarter and we had a lot of "window dressing" where money managers sell the "losers" to dress up their portfolios. October can be rough too, but this was the worst month's performance in years, so I will go with the notion that the bottom is near. September in turn is the worst month of the year for stocks. Let's provide some perspective, this sharp dive is not only about bad economic data, this Friday was the end of the worst week of the year for stocks. AscentXmedia/iStock via Getty Images I stand by my call of last week
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